Interview with a Crashprophet!
Walter K. acorn castle is independent network Consultant & investor in Vienna. It concerns itself for several years intensively with questions of money and Investment. By its numerous contributions among other things GoldSeiten.de in which it refers to a coming world economic crisis, has it within short time the rank of a well-known Crashpropheten gained.
This interview appeared already first in shortened version in the second expenditure "raw material of the mirror". You can subscribe the free news type character of GoldSeiten.de here: www.rohstoff spiegel.de
Raw material mirror: Many readers are you by their numerous contributions over a coming Systemcrash and precaution possibilities on GoldSeiten.de a term. You could us to the introduction briefly describe like you at all to it came with this topic to be concerned, from where you refer your founded knowledge and why you decided to it quasi as "Crashprophet" the unexplained citizen the risks of the financial and Wirtschaftsystems before eyes to lead.
Walter K. acorn castle: I am already for over 20 years investor. I however unfortunately entered at the beginning of of 2000 in time from the stock markets come out 2001 too early again. The courses slipped, thus I continued to begin, background systematically to analyze and on amazing results came. Actually one out-hesitated again and again since approximately 1990 one by the high indebtedness to expecting Crash with deflation by "gluing on Liquditaetspflastern".
R.S.: Could you summarize for our fewer well informed readers completely briefly the basic theses, why according to your conviction a Crash seems inevitable to current economic system?
W.E.: There are the long-term Kondratief Kreditzyklus. After approximately 2 generations the fear of debts comes up lost, one owes unrestrainedly, as particularly the example the USA shows. Since in our credit money system the interest must be generated by new indebtedness in the system, will sometime the burden of debts too heavy and cannot no more be served. Every 50... 70 years breaks down therefore the burden of debts in the "Kondratieff winter". Also this times it will like that be. The confidence into the system shrinks already noticeably, therefore also the present warnings of EZB, OECD, IMF, TO etc.. It believes it only nobody.
R.S.: They stress in your contributions that a Crash does not run linear, but inflation and deflation alternate. Among other things you refer to a deflation after the stock exchange high in the year 2001. Was this not exactly that time in that the global money supply as fast rose as rarely before?
W.E.: In the reason the today's Fiat Money/Creditmoney system is lost, since nothing is behind it, as debts. If those burst, then the currency concerned is abverkauft. It is enough already the appearance of it as one sees current at Hungary and Turkey. A classical deflation gave it still to the 1930er year, since still money = gold was here. In the Fiat Money system also the currency is devalued by flight of capital, as was it shown at the Asia, Russia and Argentina crises. It comes thus to a deflation of the financial values and an inflation with consumer goods by the devaluing currency. A pure, linear hyperinflation can occur actually only if the indebtedness of majority is national indebtedness. During high total indebtedness Bond-Holder can (abverkaufen) outsell ? faster than the central bank monetisieren can. The exact process shows up always only in practice.
R.S.: The risk for a deflation it could according to your statements of a Crash at the US pension market go out - now you stress however also correct-proved that the money supply straight rises therefore in such a way, because Bernanke & CO monetisieren for the avoidance of a deflation as many US government loans as necessary. From which motive the USA should suddenly change their attitude and why the creditors of the USA should throw their loans then on the market, however the Banker in Japan and China knows exactly that their economics is ruined likewise thereby?
W.E.: Not Bernanke (monetisiert) money go on ? the US Treasuries (government loans) - not yet, that makes primarily the other central banks, which hold Treasuries as currency reserves. By the world-wide negative material interest the central banks come now into problems. This largest Reflation of all times high-drove the (rohstoffpreise) Raw material price ?, which go now everywhere into the consumer prices. We are in a situation as into the 1970er years. If they hold the interest further down, they risk the large bond Crash with the escape into the gold. If they increase the interest drastically, it gives equal the Crash. Game more over - soon.
R.S.: They warn to buy (vehement) constantly ? before it precious metals on credit and argue this with a possible deflation. Now the silver guru pure hard German contradicted you however recently very violently and brought the empirical rebutting evidence that one had driven since 2000 with debts into the US dollar and precious metal plants very well. One should not differentiate a little between debts in hard (Swiss Franconia, Singapore dollar...) and soft currencies (dollar, euro, Yen...)?
W.E.: The gold price break-down of May/June 2006 showed, why. I recommend Swiss Franconia as escape currency, although he is no longer so good, as before 30 years. Therefore one should have no credits therein in the euro-area at all.
R.S.: They hold the opinion that the swollen eating blisters would have to burst world-wide around itself to normalize. However also simply couldn't everything let a relatively balanced equilibrium develop in the value to rise (inflation in the sectors left) and thus again? Finally to receive into the 1970ern likewise in this way enough air from the balloon calmly around further two decades easy the system alive?
W.E.: The today's time is material however not the 1970er years, because the indebtedness is higher around x-subject. Therefore one cannot save owe-covered currencies also to more with high interest. Everything that the elite does, is to be out-hesitated the end and to be concealed the true condition. Even if for it some wars are necessary.
R.S.: Also on the Kondratjew cycle by you in the reason for a coming economic crisis gladly one refers. They draw the conclusion from it that at the end of a Zykluses illusory worlds and illusions develop. For example you state the paging of production to Asia and the exploding number of Shopping center. Now one could interpret however the current situation as transition from the industrie to the knowledge company in which the service the predominant role takes and thus an advancement of western capitalism represents. Which arguments would like to state you against this thesis, which can be derived from the development of capitalism?
W.E.: Like that is it. Do you regard, where in the west still factories are built? In the USA one speaks rightfully of the "Financial Economy". It is virtual headlight ELT, which lives on further indebtedness. In reality one (electronic) prints money, in order to consume. If these consumer debts (as loans are world-wide sold) on the market to fly, is this kind of the debt Oekomomie out. Each supplier financing went once to end. Also this becomes it. See, in the USA already break down the real estate Bubble, thus end the further (Aufschuldung) Owing without end ?. Spain & CO will also follow. Why are Assets & currencies abverkauft at present by countries with high foreign debt?
R.S.: In Germany there is for many years an increasing municipality of Crashpropheten, for example the very popular Guenther Hannich an enormous fan municipality had. Do you really assume the today's financial and Ökonomiesystem with his many groups of interests and lobbyists would permit it so simply that one spread the perfect survival strategy for a Crash in innumerable books, Websites and InterNet forums, and we actually course-thought thereby us victim role to escape? Last the latter must nevertheless in each Crash possibly who much money lose, so that it can earn another?
W.E.: Yes, many, much money will lose. And many their prestige jobs. As soon as the bonds are sold in great quantities or a large financial accident happen, it goes correctly loosely. That can pass each day. Think of the many Hedge funds. The problem is today at least 100 times worse than 1998, than the going down Hedge rear would have brought nearly the world-wide financial system to LTCM to the collapse. Guenter Hannich makes very good analyses. Its books are recommendable as preparation. Unfortunately it is a trailer of this utopian "free money teachings". It wants to save thereby "the world" and not humans.
R.S.: In its contribution "financial crisis - simply avowedly" you write the fact that "about only 1 humans in 100.000 really know these mechanisms" behind the money system and by inflation stands for the systematic expropriation. That would not mean that only 800 people in Germany would understand this mechanism, finds you somewhat utopian that in view of the exploding paragraph of books concerning Crashstrategien? Is the emergence of a morbiden Hypes, a joy not much more already and hoping on the Crash to feel?
W.E.: This article was meant for clearing-up. One can do nevertheless for the society of something property. Whether one of 10.000 or one of 100.000 the system really understands now is actually insignificant. Also hardly a Banker understands it. Keynes said, it is one of 1 million. Whether the readers of these books really understand the system then, is another thing. Morbider Hype? Wait for the next LTCM. If then one of ten understands the thing, would be already much helped.
R.S.: Since you also point out that one must after the Crash again raus from the gold and finds the most lucrative investments in half bankruptcies companies, is to be accepted that there must also be day after. How does this day look like the large Crash according to your opinion and/or which must pass thereby the crisis past is? Does this need the introduction of a new gold-covered currency?
W.E.: Yes, it will flow also "the blood on the road", it unrests and revolutions will give. Then the ideal time is to step out of the gold and in shares to enter companies and real estates after the old Rothschild. A depression takes usually 3... 5 years (in the USA surely longer). Particularly Germany has very good chances if the bureaucracy away is, because it has still industry. Nothing different one than gold/silver will be accepted more. The good investor will make and will decide its "Due Dilligence" whether it is already favorable to transfer.
R.S.: History teaches us that many of the largest fortunes in a crisis were created. What do you guess/advise to do to the average private investor now around itself concretely against the crisis not only to protect to profit but optimally of it?
W.E.: Like that it is, it waits the largest chances for us. But one must be authority thinking placing and adjust oneself to the situation:
1. away with the debts
2. Principal ones in the form of gold and silver develop and reliably keep
3. the situation continuously observe
As next articles comes from me a three-part series over crisis precaution for employees and entrepreneurs. When I will make engineer and "Crash-prophet" in the meantime consultation for companies and investors, which want to adjust themselves to the situation. Unfortunately it for many will be quite late, because the reality refuseing ? is at present very large.
R.S.: A welfare state such as Germany be based always on envy, could not pass it therefore that we retain our fortune by gold, then however rather fast from the state to the well-being of the public "to be expropriated" - was it formal or via solidarity deliveries and to steer?
W.E.: They address an important topic. The welfare state is lost, if the voters discover that they select themselves money into the "bag" can and the politicians thereafter act. That is today the case. Everything is to be thought capable of to politicians in an emergency situation. However they "will enrich themselves" probably rather at the private pension precaution, because here the large volumes are to be found. "gold nose" are surely already forewarned. After Jim Puplava would have to run before such a gold prohibition first a (Daemonisierungskampagne) satanistic proceeding ? against gold possession. Pay attention to it. But rake it also with the fact that the western states break down as totally in Africa - then you can forget the paper money.
R.S.: On a lecture you stressed recently that the Crash will take place still in the year 2006 and we would have already seen the beginning with the kuerzlichen correction at the world-wide financial and raw material markets. Why is the Crash straight to now come? Which indicators use you for the timing?
W.E.: Thus I out-leaned somewhat. But the readers should know it. See, how everywhere the "Emerging Markets" must break in and raise the central banks the interest at present. Then there are also still the studies of the French research institute Europe 2020, which were so far quite exact. Those count on the "Impact phase" = Crash between Septembers and November 2006. We will see. Pay attention to the gold price and a fast rise. Off approx.. 850 USS/oz it might become critical.
R.S.: They refer concerning the Crash crash-Timings very gladly to some Crashexperten, among other things also to Martin white. This however already published 2002 a book: "doubling it your money in the large money panic 2003!
W.E.: I know the book (Crash of profit) and it in the original read. If it loose-goes now, it will many faster go, than in the book described, because today is still much larger and the confidence into the system smaller the unequal weights.
To the conclusion I would like to refer still to my two Websites:
Company Website (IT Consultant): www.eichelburg.com
Finance Website (hard money club): www.hartgeld.com
R.S.: Thank you for this interview!
The interview led Volker M. Riemer on 7 July 2006.
Source:
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2870
This interview appeared already first in shortened version in the second expenditure "raw material of the mirror". You can subscribe the free news type character of GoldSeiten.de here: www.rohstoff spiegel.de
Raw material mirror: Many readers are you by their numerous contributions over a coming Systemcrash and precaution possibilities on GoldSeiten.de a term. You could us to the introduction briefly describe like you at all to it came with this topic to be concerned, from where you refer your founded knowledge and why you decided to it quasi as "Crashprophet" the unexplained citizen the risks of the financial and Wirtschaftsystems before eyes to lead.
Walter K. acorn castle: I am already for over 20 years investor. I however unfortunately entered at the beginning of of 2000 in time from the stock markets come out 2001 too early again. The courses slipped, thus I continued to begin, background systematically to analyze and on amazing results came. Actually one out-hesitated again and again since approximately 1990 one by the high indebtedness to expecting Crash with deflation by "gluing on Liquditaetspflastern".
R.S.: Could you summarize for our fewer well informed readers completely briefly the basic theses, why according to your conviction a Crash seems inevitable to current economic system?
W.E.: There are the long-term Kondratief Kreditzyklus. After approximately 2 generations the fear of debts comes up lost, one owes unrestrainedly, as particularly the example the USA shows. Since in our credit money system the interest must be generated by new indebtedness in the system, will sometime the burden of debts too heavy and cannot no more be served. Every 50... 70 years breaks down therefore the burden of debts in the "Kondratieff winter". Also this times it will like that be. The confidence into the system shrinks already noticeably, therefore also the present warnings of EZB, OECD, IMF, TO etc.. It believes it only nobody.
R.S.: They stress in your contributions that a Crash does not run linear, but inflation and deflation alternate. Among other things you refer to a deflation after the stock exchange high in the year 2001. Was this not exactly that time in that the global money supply as fast rose as rarely before?
W.E.: In the reason the today's Fiat Money/Creditmoney system is lost, since nothing is behind it, as debts. If those burst, then the currency concerned is abverkauft. It is enough already the appearance of it as one sees current at Hungary and Turkey. A classical deflation gave it still to the 1930er year, since still money = gold was here. In the Fiat Money system also the currency is devalued by flight of capital, as was it shown at the Asia, Russia and Argentina crises. It comes thus to a deflation of the financial values and an inflation with consumer goods by the devaluing currency. A pure, linear hyperinflation can occur actually only if the indebtedness of majority is national indebtedness. During high total indebtedness Bond-Holder can (abverkaufen) outsell ? faster than the central bank monetisieren can. The exact process shows up always only in practice.
R.S.: The risk for a deflation it could according to your statements of a Crash at the US pension market go out - now you stress however also correct-proved that the money supply straight rises therefore in such a way, because Bernanke & CO monetisieren for the avoidance of a deflation as many US government loans as necessary. From which motive the USA should suddenly change their attitude and why the creditors of the USA should throw their loans then on the market, however the Banker in Japan and China knows exactly that their economics is ruined likewise thereby?
W.E.: Not Bernanke (monetisiert) money go on ? the US Treasuries (government loans) - not yet, that makes primarily the other central banks, which hold Treasuries as currency reserves. By the world-wide negative material interest the central banks come now into problems. This largest Reflation of all times high-drove the (rohstoffpreise) Raw material price ?, which go now everywhere into the consumer prices. We are in a situation as into the 1970er years. If they hold the interest further down, they risk the large bond Crash with the escape into the gold. If they increase the interest drastically, it gives equal the Crash. Game more over - soon.
R.S.: They warn to buy (vehement) constantly ? before it precious metals on credit and argue this with a possible deflation. Now the silver guru pure hard German contradicted you however recently very violently and brought the empirical rebutting evidence that one had driven since 2000 with debts into the US dollar and precious metal plants very well. One should not differentiate a little between debts in hard (Swiss Franconia, Singapore dollar...) and soft currencies (dollar, euro, Yen...)?
W.E.: The gold price break-down of May/June 2006 showed, why. I recommend Swiss Franconia as escape currency, although he is no longer so good, as before 30 years. Therefore one should have no credits therein in the euro-area at all.
R.S.: They hold the opinion that the swollen eating blisters would have to burst world-wide around itself to normalize. However also simply couldn't everything let a relatively balanced equilibrium develop in the value to rise (inflation in the sectors left) and thus again? Finally to receive into the 1970ern likewise in this way enough air from the balloon calmly around further two decades easy the system alive?
W.E.: The today's time is material however not the 1970er years, because the indebtedness is higher around x-subject. Therefore one cannot save owe-covered currencies also to more with high interest. Everything that the elite does, is to be out-hesitated the end and to be concealed the true condition. Even if for it some wars are necessary.
R.S.: Also on the Kondratjew cycle by you in the reason for a coming economic crisis gladly one refers. They draw the conclusion from it that at the end of a Zykluses illusory worlds and illusions develop. For example you state the paging of production to Asia and the exploding number of Shopping center. Now one could interpret however the current situation as transition from the industrie to the knowledge company in which the service the predominant role takes and thus an advancement of western capitalism represents. Which arguments would like to state you against this thesis, which can be derived from the development of capitalism?
W.E.: Like that is it. Do you regard, where in the west still factories are built? In the USA one speaks rightfully of the "Financial Economy". It is virtual headlight ELT, which lives on further indebtedness. In reality one (electronic) prints money, in order to consume. If these consumer debts (as loans are world-wide sold) on the market to fly, is this kind of the debt Oekomomie out. Each supplier financing went once to end. Also this becomes it. See, in the USA already break down the real estate Bubble, thus end the further (Aufschuldung) Owing without end ?. Spain & CO will also follow. Why are Assets & currencies abverkauft at present by countries with high foreign debt?
R.S.: In Germany there is for many years an increasing municipality of Crashpropheten, for example the very popular Guenther Hannich an enormous fan municipality had. Do you really assume the today's financial and Ökonomiesystem with his many groups of interests and lobbyists would permit it so simply that one spread the perfect survival strategy for a Crash in innumerable books, Websites and InterNet forums, and we actually course-thought thereby us victim role to escape? Last the latter must nevertheless in each Crash possibly who much money lose, so that it can earn another?
W.E.: Yes, many, much money will lose. And many their prestige jobs. As soon as the bonds are sold in great quantities or a large financial accident happen, it goes correctly loosely. That can pass each day. Think of the many Hedge funds. The problem is today at least 100 times worse than 1998, than the going down Hedge rear would have brought nearly the world-wide financial system to LTCM to the collapse. Guenter Hannich makes very good analyses. Its books are recommendable as preparation. Unfortunately it is a trailer of this utopian "free money teachings". It wants to save thereby "the world" and not humans.
R.S.: In its contribution "financial crisis - simply avowedly" you write the fact that "about only 1 humans in 100.000 really know these mechanisms" behind the money system and by inflation stands for the systematic expropriation. That would not mean that only 800 people in Germany would understand this mechanism, finds you somewhat utopian that in view of the exploding paragraph of books concerning Crashstrategien? Is the emergence of a morbiden Hypes, a joy not much more already and hoping on the Crash to feel?
W.E.: This article was meant for clearing-up. One can do nevertheless for the society of something property. Whether one of 10.000 or one of 100.000 the system really understands now is actually insignificant. Also hardly a Banker understands it. Keynes said, it is one of 1 million. Whether the readers of these books really understand the system then, is another thing. Morbider Hype? Wait for the next LTCM. If then one of ten understands the thing, would be already much helped.
R.S.: Since you also point out that one must after the Crash again raus from the gold and finds the most lucrative investments in half bankruptcies companies, is to be accepted that there must also be day after. How does this day look like the large Crash according to your opinion and/or which must pass thereby the crisis past is? Does this need the introduction of a new gold-covered currency?
W.E.: Yes, it will flow also "the blood on the road", it unrests and revolutions will give. Then the ideal time is to step out of the gold and in shares to enter companies and real estates after the old Rothschild. A depression takes usually 3... 5 years (in the USA surely longer). Particularly Germany has very good chances if the bureaucracy away is, because it has still industry. Nothing different one than gold/silver will be accepted more. The good investor will make and will decide its "Due Dilligence" whether it is already favorable to transfer.
R.S.: History teaches us that many of the largest fortunes in a crisis were created. What do you guess/advise to do to the average private investor now around itself concretely against the crisis not only to protect to profit but optimally of it?
W.E.: Like that it is, it waits the largest chances for us. But one must be authority thinking placing and adjust oneself to the situation:
1. away with the debts
2. Principal ones in the form of gold and silver develop and reliably keep
3. the situation continuously observe
As next articles comes from me a three-part series over crisis precaution for employees and entrepreneurs. When I will make engineer and "Crash-prophet" in the meantime consultation for companies and investors, which want to adjust themselves to the situation. Unfortunately it for many will be quite late, because the reality refuseing ? is at present very large.
R.S.: A welfare state such as Germany be based always on envy, could not pass it therefore that we retain our fortune by gold, then however rather fast from the state to the well-being of the public "to be expropriated" - was it formal or via solidarity deliveries and to steer?
W.E.: They address an important topic. The welfare state is lost, if the voters discover that they select themselves money into the "bag" can and the politicians thereafter act. That is today the case. Everything is to be thought capable of to politicians in an emergency situation. However they "will enrich themselves" probably rather at the private pension precaution, because here the large volumes are to be found. "gold nose" are surely already forewarned. After Jim Puplava would have to run before such a gold prohibition first a (Daemonisierungskampagne) satanistic proceeding ? against gold possession. Pay attention to it. But rake it also with the fact that the western states break down as totally in Africa - then you can forget the paper money.
R.S.: On a lecture you stressed recently that the Crash will take place still in the year 2006 and we would have already seen the beginning with the kuerzlichen correction at the world-wide financial and raw material markets. Why is the Crash straight to now come? Which indicators use you for the timing?
W.E.: Thus I out-leaned somewhat. But the readers should know it. See, how everywhere the "Emerging Markets" must break in and raise the central banks the interest at present. Then there are also still the studies of the French research institute Europe 2020, which were so far quite exact. Those count on the "Impact phase" = Crash between Septembers and November 2006. We will see. Pay attention to the gold price and a fast rise. Off approx.. 850 USS/oz it might become critical.
R.S.: They refer concerning the Crash crash-Timings very gladly to some Crashexperten, among other things also to Martin white. This however already published 2002 a book: "doubling it your money in the large money panic 2003!
W.E.: I know the book (Crash of profit) and it in the original read. If it loose-goes now, it will many faster go, than in the book described, because today is still much larger and the confidence into the system smaller the unequal weights.
To the conclusion I would like to refer still to my two Websites:
Company Website (IT Consultant): www.eichelburg.com
Finance Website (hard money club): www.hartgeld.com
R.S.: Thank you for this interview!
The interview led Volker M. Riemer on 7 July 2006.
Source:
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2870
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